In 1910, the US had nearly 20 million horses. By 1974, that number dropped to under 1.6 million, according to Data Paddock. The automobile revolutionised transportation, making horses a luxury and reducing demand for breeders and farriers. Meanwhile, auto mechanics and manufacturers flourished. There are some industries that could disappear in 10 years. This history therefore prompts us to ask: which industries today face a similar fate?
1. Delivery and Taxi Drivers: Fifteen years ago, tech companies started testing self-driving cars, leading many to predict that human drivers would be obsolete by 2020. That hasn’t happened yet, but the progress in self-driving technology continues. In the next decade or two, self-driving cars could replace millions of human drivers as their safety records surpass human capabilities.
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2. Travel Agencies: Travel agencies have become a luxury for the wealthy. They cater to busy individuals who prefer someone else to handle the details. However, the middle class increasingly books their travel directly using platforms like Skyscanner and Airbnb. Custom travel planners will still exist but serve a much smaller clientele.
3. Newspaper and Magazine Publishing: Print publications will consolidate and cater to niche audiences. While well-known titles like The New York Times and The Washington Post may still print copies for prestige and nostalgia, circulation will never return to its peak in the 20th century.
4. Coal Energy and Mining: Coal is facing a steady decline due to its negative reputation and the rise of cleaner energy alternatives. The US Career Institute ranks coal among the fastest-declining industries, reflecting the shift toward sustainable energy sources.
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5. Data Entry: With most data now being collected digitally and artificial intelligence (AI) handling data analysis, the need for manual data entry is disappearing. Although exceptions may exist, this low-skill job is on the verge of extinction.
6. Low-End Customer Support: As AI interfaces become more advanced and human-like, they will handle most customer interactions. While some issues will still require human assistance, AI will dominate first-level customer support.
7. Low-End Legal Research: AI is also transforming the legal profession. Smarter systems will soon be able to search legal databases, case law, and precedents instantly, reducing the need for paralegals and legal researchers.
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8. Freelance Writing: Lastly, freelance writers are also at risk. They are among industries that could disappear in 10 years. AI can generate written content by synthesising data. While AI can’t replicate human experience or creativity, it may replace much of the content creation, particularly for niche industries. Only writers with specialised expertise may still be in demand.